Early Trends for General Elections

As we all know, General Elections in India are very much around the corner. As the political climate heats up, we will soon start to see political debates picking up steam on online media. So the other day, I just did a quick random check on Google Trends to see which political camp is trending online. Here are some results.


Narendra Modi vs. Rahul Gandhi

From the BJP camp, Narendra Modi is pretty much crowned as their Prime Ministerial candidate. However, from the Congress side, there are still confusing signals, so I have randomly selected Rahul Gandhi as the next major opponent.As the graph shows, Namo far outruns Rahul Gandhi, as far as public interest goes.


Congress vs. BJP

The two major national parties, Congress and BJP are almost neck to neck, with the BJP having a narrow lead.


Rahul Gandhi vs. Congress

Now, ever since Narendra Modi was crowned as the BJP Campaign Committee head, there has been a lot of buzz and debate about the emergence of the personality cult in Indian Politics. So I also decided to generate a trending graph of Rahul Gandhi vs his party, the Congress. As can be seen, both are trending at same pace.


Narendra Modi vs. BJP

Now this is the interesting graph, albeit not a surprising one. A trending comparison of Narendra Modi vs his party, shows that Narendra Modi is generating far more interest in the public imagination than the BJP.

Personally, I feel that the emergence of the personality cult in Indian Politics is not a new phenomenon. Political parties in India have traditionally fought elections in the name of their most charismatic leader. eg Congress has been fighting elections under the Gandhi family name since ages.Similarly, for the numerous other regional parties, their leader is often the most recognizable face of the party.And greater the charisma of their leader, the better are the winning chances for that party.Well, as the trends above clearly show, Narendra Modi is generating not only more interest than his closest contender, but also more interest than his own party.


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2 Comments on Early Trends for General Elections

  1. hemen parekh
    September 7, 2013 at 4:56 am (5 years ago)

    UPA 3 or NDA 2 ? What is your Choice ?

    Our country is facing a long list of Economic and Social problems
    Many of these require enacting new legislation
    Equal number require strict implementation of existing laws
    Solutions of quite a few problems , need bold / innovative and often , unpopular steps demanding deep sacrifices from different sections of our society

    All of these need,

     A heightened sense of co-operation ( National interest comes first )

     Willingness to reach compromises ( win some / lose some )

     An acute sense of urgency ( get going now / improve along the way )

    Unfortunately , during the past few years , hardly any progress could be made towards Political / Social / Economic reforms , since no single political party got an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha
    And , unless the Indian voters understand the shortcomings of the Coalition Government and decide to give one party ( it does not matter which ) , an absolute majority in the forthcoming 2014 national elections , we can expect repetition of the history !
    No Government which has to hopelessly depend upon its coalition partners , can carry out the desired reforms
    I believe , any major national party ( only Congress and BJP ? ) , which gets less than 275 seats in Lok Sabha , will continue to be blackmailed by its coalition partners
    And it would make absolutely no difference whether Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi heads UPA 3 or NDA 2 , as the Prime Minister !
    Either would be an impotent puppet of “ Coalition Dharma “ where corrupt partners dictate the shape of reforms !
    It is simple
    Either we give 300 seats to a single party or we continue to suffer for another 5 years !
    Remember , an imperfect decision is any day better than No Decision !

    • hemen parekh

  2. ayesha
    September 7, 2013 at 6:41 am (5 years ago)

    Well, UPA 1 and UPA 2 has set new benchmarks for under-performance and corruption. UPA 2 is more comfortably positioned in the Parliament as opposed to UPA 1, yet neither the Parliament is able to function nor the Government is able to deliver. I feel that this is primarily due to lack of leadership and vision from the top, for which the blame lies squarely on the skewed (and perhaps illegal) distribution of power between the Government and the NAC. And yes, I agree with you 100% that Coalition Politics severely cripples the government. Today’s coalition partners serve more as the opposition and their only agenda is to block the non-populist bills by keeping the government at gun point.

    My kind of radical take on this is to allow only 2 or 3 political parties contest the elections at the Central level.These can be Congress, BJP and the Left. The regional parties should only contest elections at the State level. This way, we can not only eliminate Coalition Politics but we can also ensure that National Interest is no more held hostage to populism and regional dictations.

    But speaking as a realist, I am very pessimistic about this ever getting implemented.So yes, I agree with you that we need to elect a single party with a thumping majority if we want good governance for the next 5 years.

    I also believe that even we, the Aam Admi, can make genuine difference to how politics function in this country by becoming more aware and informed of how political parties try to fool us into voting along caste patterns.Performance should be the single dominating criteria for voting anyone to power.Technology helps alleviate these concerns. Thanks to social media tools like Facebook, many young citizens of India are now becoming increasingly politically conscious. And this is a trend which is unlikely to reverse. Ultimately, the real power lies in the hands of the people, and if we give up our political apathy and realize that even a single vote in a country of billions makes a difference, I am sure that political arrogance and high-handedness will soon see it’s twilight.


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